Niall Ferguson is a much media-cited current historian; but yours truly has not read him. Perhaps this Newsweek piece was not the best place to start doing so. It is definitely aimed at a “popular” audience, as its title alone immediately makes clear:
America’s ‘Oh Sh*t!’ Moment
Or maybe it means to “talk down” to that audience? “Popular” does not have to be poor history; but as we move into his article we discover its basic premise is so sloppy as to be embarrassing. Surely some grad student must have been press-ganged to “ghost” write this in a hurry? Yours truly had to re-read it several times, in disbelief that anyone of his purported historical gravitas could have composed something so pedestrian, and even at times, just wrongheaded:
Don’t call me a “declinist.” I really don’t believe the United States—or Western civilization, more generally—is in some kind of gradual, inexorable decline.
But that’s not because I am one of those incorrigible optimists who agree with Winston Churchill that the United States will always do the right thing, albeit when all other possibilities have been exhausted.
In my view, civilizations don’t rise, fall, and then gently decline, as inevitably and predictably as the four seasons or the seven ages of man. History isn’t one smooth, parabolic curve after another. Its shape is more like an exponentially steepening slope that quite suddenly drops off like a cliff.
If you don’t know what I mean, pay a visit to Machu Picchu, the lost city of the Incas. In 1530 the Incas were the masters of all they surveyed from the heights of the Peruvian Andes. Within less than a decade, foreign invaders with horses, gunpowder, and lethal diseases had smashed their empire to smithereens. Today tourists gawp at the ruins that remain.
It is believed Machu Picchu was abandoned by the Incas around 1570 — some 40 years after Pizarro and the Spaniards invaded the region. So even a first-year, pre-Columbian history student knows full-well that paragraph is not immediate cause and effect. Pizarro did not capture it, destroy it, and then dance triumphantly among those ruins at which modern tourists now gawp.
It fell into ruins because it was abandoned and forgotten. The conquistador never knew the remote place even existed. No one outside of those very local did — including most of the Incas themselves — until a century ago, when those ruins were found by outsiders.
The Incas’ imperial government was overthrown and the population devastated by disease and enslavement. Yet today many Peruvians still don’t speak Spanish at all; and Inca ways are subtly woven throughout Peruvian society. The Incas were definitely conquered and changed in innumerable ways; and they have themselves also changed; but they have not vanished.
Still, that opening salvo from Ferguson might be deemed arguable and even plausible on its own. The piece’s real weakness is reinforced through Ferguson’s insistently piling on in that vein. Meaning it is when he ventures down paths much more familiar and tries to build the same case, that his argument most noticably comes apart:
The notion that civilizations don’t decline but collapse inspired the anthropologist Jared Diamond’s 2005 book, Collapse. But Diamond focused, fashionably, on man-made environmental disasters as the causes of collapse. As a historian, I take a broader view. My point is that when you look back on the history of past civilizations, a striking feature is the speed with which most of them collapsed, regardless of the cause.
The Roman Empire didn’t decline and fall sedately, as historians used to claim. It collapsed within a few decades in the early fifth century, tipped over the edge of chaos by barbarian invaders and internal divisions. In the space of a generation, the vast imperial metropolis of Rome fell into disrepair, the aqueducts broken, the splendid marketplaces deserted.
Historians did not “used to claim” Rome as a civilization declined and fell “sedately”. Rather they felt the evidence demonstrated, and does still, that its imperial government formally “fell” when the last nominal Western emperor (a child) was deposed in AD 476. The senate had by then also ceased to meet, and what had been the imperial center until Constantine had shifted it away to his “New Rome” in AD 330, finally became the preserve of the Church as centuries-old Roman state institutions faded out.
Edward Gibbon — whose “Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire” remains the gold standard against which Roman historians are still measured — generally pointed an accusing finger at “soft” Christianity (a largely internal ideology) first and foremost, for undermining the toughness of the Roman character and making it less capable of coping with barbarian invasions. Indeed Christianity had already changed Rome a century and a half before the Western half of the imperial government fell. And Rome already had changed barbarians who had invaded and settled before AD 476. In 378 an Eastern Roman emperor was killed and “40,000″ Roman, often by then Christian legionnaires, were slaughtered by the increasingly Christian Goths at Adrianople. Three generations later, in 451, a Western “Roman” Christian army Gaius Julius Caesar would barely have recognized tactically, religiously and ethnically — composed as it was mostly of Goths — in turn broke the invading Huns.
Moreover Ferguson overlooks that Gibbon viewed “Roman civilization” as ending not in AD 476, but in AD 1453. In the Eastern half of the empire, “imperial Rome” — Byzantium — existed until the fall of Constantinople to the Ottoman Turks. At that point, that “Roman government” also “collapsed”. Yet in the subsequent Ottoman Empire, its capital at Constantinople, much that had been Byzantium culturally survived; and it still does in modern Turkey. Byzantium may have changed the Turks as much as it was changed by the Turks.
Concurrently Western Rome persisted culturally through Charlemagne and later the “Holy Roman Empire”, and remains a major element of the West in the present. Today the Roman civilization we think of — togas, gladiators, Ben Hur and so forth — is with us still in the West within layers of our cultural essentials. It imbues our religions, languages, food, drink, and local cultures. It is also in our governments, amidst law codes, Latin, constitutions, and with its “capitols” and “senators” and so much more.
Quickly, Ferguson next takes us to China:
The Ming dynasty’s rule in China also fell apart with extraordinary speed in the mid–17th century, succumbing to internal strife and external invasion. Again, the transition from equipoise to anarchy took little more than a decade.
But once again, had Chinese civilization “fallen off a cliff”? Of course not. A dynasty — a government — is not a civilization.
A more recent and familiar example of precipitous decline is, of course, the collapse of the Soviet Union. And, if you still doubt that collapse comes suddenly, just think of how the postcolonial dictatorships of North Africa and the Middle East imploded this year. Twelve months ago, Messrs. Ben Ali, Mubarak, and Gaddafi seemed secure in their gaudy palaces. Here yesterday, gone today.
Likewise the more recent “fall” of the Soviet Union. To argue that the USSR as a political entity “collapsed” is absolutely true: that government was written out of existence in hours. Yet is “Russian civilization” gone? Is even the pervasive ongoing influence of Soviet institutions and outlook no more? Certainly not.
North Africa is among the oldest settled areas in the world. On it is grafted its “influencers”, including Islam, after it had already absorbed Christianity and a variety of invaders and cultures over the previous 3,000 years. They, in sum, help make up today’s Libyans, Tunisians and Egyptians. Citing a quickie list of its recent fallen state strongmen as evidence of civilizational “here yesterday, gone today” is so myopic from a serious historian, it is laughable.
What all these collapsed powers have in common is that the complex social systems that underpinned them suddenly ceased to function. One minute rulers had legitimacy in the eyes of their people; the next they didn’t…
If dynasties and governments falling are to be equated with civilizations collapsing, “Greek civilization” would have fallen many times over since 500 BC. Based on Ferguson’s Inca opener, “French civilization” must have also “collapsed” at least 3 times since 1814 — based on France’s conquests by invading foreigners in 1814, 1870 and 1940. And following the annihilation of millions of Germans through war and disease, and the destruction of its Third Reich “dynasty” in 1945, how is there still a “German civilization?”
Because civilizations’ boundaries are never as clearcut as narrative demands and invariably makes them out to be. The Vikings infamously wreaked havoc on western Europe in the Middle Ages. But, as they made their rampaging way along the coasts, many of the raiders found Frankish women marriageable. In becoming Christians, intermarrying and building permanent homes, those Scandinavian seafarers, who had been the scourge of the North Sea waters, changed. That slow evolution’s outcome is seen now in many of the surnames of today’s Norman French.
Civilizations never stand still: they are ever-changing, ever-blending, ever-evolving. The US is a vastly different society in 2011 than it was in 1789. Many of the Founding Fathers — John Jay pops immediately to mind — would likely be appalled at the demographic and religious evolution of the US, particularly at the huge increase in Roman Catholics (and Catholic Spanish-speakers), as well as in Jews, and the arrival of numbers of “Mohammedans”.
Yet in that “universalism” America is much like ancient Rome. By the 5th century, emperors who may never have set foot in Rome before assuming the purple, and followed the Gospel of one Jesus Christ, a Jew who had been born in Judea during Augustus’s reign, were sitting on the very throne (actually, by then, two of them) Augustus had created. If Augustus could have seen his Rome in AD 400, he would have been utterly astounded.
Much as today the US has Barack Obama as president. He is plainly in so many ways so unlike John Adams, yet now serving as US chief executive in the very same White House in which Adams sat. Adams would have found Obama — a man born in a Pacific island state called Hawaii, the son of a Muslim from British east Africa, married briefly to a white American woman from a state called Kansas (to say nothing of the electorate in 2008 being more than half female) — being in office incredible.
The rest of Ferguson’s article includes some interesting facts and statistics offered up in isolation, some of which may be telling, or maybe not. The bottom line is the piece never shakes off its initial structural mess. Ferguson opens by confusing governments “falling” with civilizations “falling”, and he then runs “off a cliff”.
One would think a highly esteemed historian would, in a popular article, at least try to enlighten readers instead of confusing them. Clarity is precisely something of which we are all in desperate need. We can do with much LESS of the potboiler stuff.
Poor economies may mean the collapse of governments. They might even lead to the violent overthrow of them. But civilizations tend to persist a lot longer than defeat in a war or two or three, to say nothing of merely a recession or a depression:
…the streets were filling with the unemployed and homeless; and, of course, the less they consumed, the weaker the demand and the more anemic the economy. Men of intelligence and goodwill were utterly puzzled: everything they tried turned out to be useless or, on occasion, actually harmful; and so the component parts of the nation shrank in upon themselves…
…Even the budget defied reason: successive finance ministers zealously cut expenditures, but the deficit kept ballooning… Statesmen whose best efforts were utter failures, theoreticians whose theories kept being dispproved, economists who saw with horror the economy behave in ways they had been taught were impossible, all looked about them in anguish, while the people, whom they were supposed to lead, blamed all impartially…
Does that, observed about the France of 1935 by historian Olivier Bernier in 1993, sound rather familiar to us now? It could also have been written in many respects of the US of that same era. Despite that economic downturn, and the “falling” of the presidency of Herbert Hoover in 1932, is American civilization still with us today? And if President Obama and the entire House of Representatives and 1/3rd of the Senate, are voted out of office in 2012, does that mark an American “collapse”?
Recent Comments